The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator has come in showing that inflation is still running hotter than expected. This creates a difficult position for the Federal Reserve as it tries to balance interest rate cuts while managing inflation at the same time. Despite previous rate adjustments, inflation has remained stubbornly high.

In an unexpected turn, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation came in cooler than expected for the month of January, falling to a five-year low.

The jobs report showed that unemployment numbers came in worse than expected, perhaps signaling further hesitation from the Federal Reserve, despite inflation data coming in favorably.

While Consumer Sentiment has inched up slightly, Consumer Credit tells a different story. Credit usage has continued to rise, suggesting increased financial strain on consumers amid ongoing economic pressures such as inflation. Although another rate cut is still expected, its likelihood remains uncertain under the current administration.

While many were optimistic about an additional rate cut, the Federal Reserve has decided to maintain current interest rates pending further data. They have previously stated that at least one more rate cut would follow the last one, but their stance now appears to depend on the availability of sufficient supporting data.