With next week featuring both the CPI and PPI reports, the release schedule for this upcoming week will be extremely light. This previous week featured a small number of notable data releases. First being the trade deficit which has shown a sharp decline due to the tariff policies, but has increased again with the pause on tariffs. The manufacturing sector has seen growth as well with the PMI Manufacturing data, but inflation also proves to have grown just as much. Lastly, employment numbers have shown a stronger than expected labor market, but there are still expectations that things will cool further.

With the passing of the previous busy weeks of rate decisions, this week features the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report in the PCE Index, which has shown that inflation has come in hotter than expected for the month of May. This likely cements the Federal Reserve’s decision to take no action until later and further confirming most economists’ predictions. The consumer confidence has also taken a hit as it has further declined again for the month of May, indicating there is still significant apprehension within the markets and consumers alike. This is accompanied by Consumer Spending data, which met expectations, as many consumers had already begun pulling back on spending in response to tariff policies before many of those measures were paused.

With the passing of the FOMC rate decision, it has become clear that the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see approach to the current situation regarding tariff policies. Although the vast majority of economists around the world have made predictions about what lies ahead, the effects have not yet been pronounced. Many of the recent tariff changes have also been revoked or put on pause for the largest industries, leaving many markets uncertain about the future. The key takeaway is that conditions will likely remain steady for now. The only other data release offering insight into what’s to come is the notable decline in U.S. retail sales, reflecting a reduction in consumer activity.

The CPI and PPI have yet to reveal the impacts of the tariff policies that were placed temporarily, which gives some potential insight that there might be a path forward for the Federal Reserve to look at potential rate cuts. However, economists across many industries are expecting inflation to increase temporarily as an impact for the policies that were put in place.